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BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 37 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 30 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 47 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
83%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 26 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 26 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 26 games
85%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 659 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
440 picks · 423 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
347 picks · 720 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
320 picks · 645 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 506 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
305 picks · 609 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
298 picks · 133 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head8 – 3
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:30
Team Liquid 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
50% · 79 games48% · 128 games
UnderlordCrystallis
Underlord
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
46% · 67 games55% · 127 games
Templar Assassinbzm
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
56% · 81 game47% · 151 game
Medusa33
Medusa
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
55% · 158 games40% · 95 games
TinkerWhitemon
Tinker
Tusk
TuskBoxi
51% · 168 games50% · 52 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1