BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Liquidwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerk
Poloson · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Xm · 23 games
Muertasignature
Pyw · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
niu · 20 games
Jakirosignature
天命 · 20 games
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 18 games
Team Liquid
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 36 games
Tinysignature
miCKe · 36 games
Muertasignature
Boxi · 30 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Magnussignature
miCKe · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
461 picks · 658 bans
Jakiro
438 picks · 421 bans
Phantom Assassin
347 picks · 718 bans
Bristleback
319 picks · 643 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 507 bans
Beastmaster
303 picks · 607 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 274 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
Xtreme Gaming 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAme
TinymiCKe
DoomXxs
Dragon KnightNisha
Ember SpiritXm
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
WindrangerXinQ
TechiesBoxi
Elder TitanPoloson
JakiroiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1