BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Jakiro
Panto · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
Tusksignature
Mira · 18 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kiyotaka · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 14 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 31 game
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 15 games
Jakiro
Malady · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
458 picks · 661 bans
Jakiro
437 picks · 422 bans
Phantom Assassin
349 picks · 717 bans
Bristleback
319 picks · 641 bans
Muerta
313 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 509 bans
Beastmaster
304 picks · 605 bans
Warlock
297 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:45
Aurora Gaming 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
UrsaWatson
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
LeshracQuinn
Tinykiyotaka
Centaur WarrunnerAce
RikiMira
TinkerMalady
RingmasterPanto
WindrangertOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1