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BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 1:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 30 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 28 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
38%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 29 games
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 20 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 19 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 661 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
436 picks · 422 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
349 picks · 717 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
319 picks · 640 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 183 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 509 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
304 picks · 604 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
297 picks · 273 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:14
Team Tidebound 44%Xtreme Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetshiro
47% · 136 games52% · 103 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
46% · 415 games56% · 168 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
45% · 182 games52% · 378 games
TinyXm
Tiny
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
55% · 100 games56% · 39 games
RikiXinQ
Riki
Silencer
Silencery`
42% · 131 game51% · 276 games
JakiroPoloson
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1