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BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Falconswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 27 games
85%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 24 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 24 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 24 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
62%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 39 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 32 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 28 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
82%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 660 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
435 picks · 422 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
348 picks · 717 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
319 picks · 639 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 508 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
303 picks · 604 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
297 picks · 272 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total72% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
PARIVISION 62%Team Falcons 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
44% · 225 games51% · 279 games
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Beastmaster
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
51% · 145 games48% · 141 game
SvenSkiter
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordDM
47% · 138 games45% · 284 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
52% · 380 games51% · 223 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Earthshaker
Earthshaker9Class
56% · 167 games55% · 128 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 72%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1