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BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 35 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 32 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 28 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 27 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yatoro · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 22 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
59%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 16 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kiyotaka · 14 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 660 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
434 picks · 421 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
348 picks · 716 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
319 picks · 637 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 508 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
302 picks · 603 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
297 picks · 272 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:16
Team Spirit 65%Aurora Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
45% · 210 games45% · 266 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
45% · 151 game56% · 146 games
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Seer
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
57% · 263 games56% · 191 game
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
50% · 173 games57% · 79 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Bane
BaneMiposhka
45% · 43 games44% · 158 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1