BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Tideboundwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 36 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 35 games
Muertasignature
Boxi · 30 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 21 game
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 29 games
Jakirosignature
y` · 28 games
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 15 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 13 games
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
453 picks · 659 bans
Jakiro
432 picks · 420 bans
Phantom Assassin
347 picks · 716 bans
Bristleback
319 picks · 633 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 507 bans
Beastmaster
300 picks · 601 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:41
Team Liquid 62%Team Tidebound 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinymiCKe
Gyrocoptershiro
Ember SpiritNisha
TimbersawFaith_bian
Sand KingSabeRLight-
KunkkaNothingToSay
HoodwinkBoxi
Silencery`
RingmasteriNSaNiA
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1