Nexus vs Crescent — prediction BSVЗО · Dota 2

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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Nexusloss 1:2

series probability

55%45%

probability at match start · final 1:2

CCrescentwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nexus

No games played over 6 months.

Crescent

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

486 picks · 330 bans

51%

Bane

341 picks · 464 bans

54%

Clockwerk

331 picks · 500 bans

52%

Ember Spirit

328 picks · 504 bans

57%

Shadow Fiend

310 picks · 639 bans

52%

Tiny

280 picks · 311 bans

47%

Windranger

267 picks · 191 bans

48%

Centaur Warrunner

258 picks · 274 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% Nexus

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total55% Nexus

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct

Nexus 55%Crescent 45%

The model gave 55% on Nexus — the game was taken by Nexus.

Game 2prediction correct36:9

Nexus 54%Crescent 46%

The model gave 54% on Nexus — the game was taken by Nexus in 27:46.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo