BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
Doomsignature
33 · 37 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 27 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 27 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 24 games
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 24 games
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerk
Poloson · 29 games
Muertasignature
Pyw · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 22 games
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
niu · 19 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 18 games
Jakirosignature
天命 · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
452 picks · 657 bans
Jakiro
430 picks · 419 bans
Phantom Assassin
346 picks · 715 bans
Bristleback
319 picks · 630 bans
Muerta
311 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 507 bans
Beastmaster
299 picks · 599 bans
Warlock
295 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:31
Tundra Esports 64%Xtreme Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritbzm
SvenAme
TerrorbladeCrystallis
BeastmasterXm
Dark Seer33
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Night StalkerSaksa
Shadow DemonXinQ
RingmasterWhitemon
JakiroPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1