BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Muertasignature
rue · 34 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 32 games
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 27 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yatoro · 23 games
Batridersignature
rue · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 31 game
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
Quinn · 15 games
Warlocksignature
Malady · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
452 picks · 657 bans
Jakiro
430 picks · 419 bans
Phantom Assassin
346 picks · 715 bans
Bristleback
319 picks · 630 bans
Muerta
311 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 507 bans
Beastmaster
299 picks · 599 bans
Warlock
295 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:30
Team Spirit 64%Gaimin Gladiators 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYatoro
MorphlingWatson
Ember SpiritLarl
MedusaAce
UnderlordCollapse
PangolierQuinn
Muertarue
Keeper of the LighttOfu
SilencerMiposhka
JakiroMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1