BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TGthe goal of all life is deathloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Hoodwink
Kaka · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Moon · 14 games
Lionsignature
Kaka · 13 games
Tinysignature
lou · 13 games
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 12 games
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaka · 9 games
the goal of all life is death
Crystal Maiden
Marlin · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Summer · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Night · 1 game
Iooften banned
Marlin · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Summer · 1 game
Lion
Marlin · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Night · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
490 picks · 331 bans
Bane
345 picks · 467 bans
Clockwerk
333 picks · 502 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 506 bans
Shadow Fiend
313 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 311 bans
Windranger
268 picks · 192 bans
Centaur Warrunner
260 picks · 278 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:4
Yakult Brothers 81%the goal of all life is death 19%
The model gave 81% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 18:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinylou
LinaNight
Earth SpiritEmo
Nature's ProphetSummer
DawnbreakerBEYOND
Mirana天命
LionKaka
Game 2prediction correct22:10
Yakult Brothers 79%the goal of all life is death 21%
The model gave 79% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 25:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawBEYOND
Nature's ProphetSummer
LinaEmo
PangolierNight
Tinylou
Mirana天命
EarthshakerKaka
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 94%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2