European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 12 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
Batrider
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 7 games
Leshrac
kolya_kaBAN68 · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 7 games
Runa Team
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 4 games
Windranger
queezy · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 3 games
Ringmaster
Mary_y · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Alberkaaa · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Alberkaaa · 2 games
Elder Titan
Mary_y · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
454 picks · 668 bans
Jakiro
430 picks · 420 bans
Phantom Assassin
349 picks · 723 bans
Bristleback
322 picks · 638 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 185 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 519 bans
Beastmaster
302 picks · 602 bans
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
Quantum Team 45%Runa Team 55%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterLukas
SlarkShigetsu
Ember SpiritRvze
Tinynicky`cool
Centaur Warrunnerkolya_kaBAN68
Sand KingAlberkaaa
47% · 124 games
Snapfirequeezy
47% · 86 games
WarlockMary_y
Game 2prediction correct15:22
Quantum Team 43%Runa Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetLukas
MedusaShigetsu
Bristlebackkolya_kaBAN68
Tinynicky`cool
Ember SpiritRvze
MarsAlberkaaa
50% · 68 games
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
47% · 62 games
SilencerMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 62%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2