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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 8 games
38%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
MaTson · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 9 games
33%
Sand King
Sand King
спортик · 9 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
спортик · 7 games
14%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
спортик · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 672 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
429 picks · 420 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
350 picks · 725 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 638 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 185 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 519 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
304 picks · 603 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
296 picks · 272 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 31%
Hero pool strength58% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:34
Level UP 59%Nemiga Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNikobaby
46% · 251 game55% · 25 games
Anti-Magebashka
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMaTson
52% · 178 games54% · 227 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsGunnar
45% · 98 games45% · 126 games
Slardarспортик
Slardar
Tinker
TinkerDuBu
63% · 65 games52% · 286 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark Willowjesv
42% · 98 games56% · 26 games
OracleShishak
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed6:27
Level UP 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNikobaby
49% · 93 games56% · 130 games
Nature's Prophetспортик
Nature's Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMaTson
47% · 238 games57% · 53 games
Faceless Voidbashka
Faceless Void
Sand King
Sand KingGunnar
50% · 178 games53% · 95 games
Tinkermonodrama
Tinker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonjesv
42% · 145 games54% · 233 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Ringmaster
RingmasterDuBu
43% · 157 games51% · 300 games
JakiroShishak
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 69%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2