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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lightless · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 1 game
100%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 28 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
41%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kreker · 18 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 675 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
421 picks · 414 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 726 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
329 picks · 630 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 521 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
303 picks · 597 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 272 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:44
Team Lynx 39%Passion UA 61%
The model gave 61% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 50:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingStoneBank
53% · 28 games47% · 37 games
Monkey Kingniche
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawInfernal
44% · 157 games53% · 58 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
63% · 53 games
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
56% · 32 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
56% · 5 games
SlarkQBFY
Slark
Game 2prediction correct12:18
Team Lynx 42%Passion UA 58%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingStoneBank
38% · 39 games44% · 62 games
MorphlingCrystallize
Morphling
Enigma
EnigmaInfernal
65% · 177 games30% · 16 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
57% · 67 games
Tinyniche
Tiny
48% · 19 games
Ancient Apparitionkreker
Ancient Apparition
37% · 52 games
MuertaQBFY
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 71%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2