European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 4 games
Windranger
queezy · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Alberkaaa · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Alberkaaa · 2 games
Elder Titan
Mary_y · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
queezy · 2 games
4Pirates
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
450 picks · 673 bans
Jakiro
420 picks · 413 bans
Phantom Assassin
349 picks · 726 bans
Bristleback
328 picks · 625 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 521 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 187 bans
Beastmaster
302 picks · 594 bans
Warlock
294 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:36
Runa Team 39%4Pirates 61%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinShigetsu
DawnbreakerOtaker
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Beastmasterмистер мораль
TinkerMary_y
Windrangerariel
Tuskqueezy
SilencerPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction missed37:19
Runa Team 38%4Pirates 62%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerShigetsu
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
MedusaAlberkaaa
TerrorbladeOtaker
Rikinicky`cool
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
Snapfirequeezy
Windrangerariel
RingmasterMary_y
ClockwerkPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction correct6:29
Runa Team 38%4Pirates 62%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
Nature's ProphetOtaker
AbaddonAlberkaaa
TinyNattyNarwhal
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Ancient Apparitionqueezy
JakiroPERDAN4IK
WarlockMary_y
Ringmasterariel
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 72%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3