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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW Teamwin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

WW Team

No games played over 6 months.

Level UP

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 6 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Focus · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 670 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
419 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 727 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
330 picks · 625 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 522 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
303 picks · 595 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% WW Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:31
WW Team 36%Level UP 64%
The model gave 64% on Level UP — the game was taken by WW Team in 1:09:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingssnovv1
42% · 255 games45% · 124 games
MedusaNikobaby
Medusa
Sand King
Sand KingVladikTheHtiviy
55% · 166 games48% · 182 games
PuckMaTson
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingMirele
54% · 183 games47% · 263 games
BristlebackGunnar
Bristleback
Slark
SlarkWein
52% · 69 games56% · 46 games
Shadow Shamanxsvampire
Shadow Shaman
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
57% · 61 game49% · 119 games
Elder TitanDuBu
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct10:40
WW Team 34%Level UP 66%
The model gave 66% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
53% · 91 game45% · 70 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Kunkka
KunkkaMirele
43% · 77 games57% · 109 games
Templar AssassinNikobaby
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
53% · 73 games52% · 57 games
Earthshakerxsvampire
Earthshaker
Tinker
Tinkerasdekor_r
39% · 48 games54% · 134 games
MarsGunnar
Mars
Tusk
TuskWein
47% · 209 games53% · 128 games
MiranaDuBu
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed36:22
WW Team 37%Level UP 63%
The model gave 63% on Level UP — the game was taken by WW Team in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkassnovv1
60% · 137 games52% · 95 games
LifestealerNikobaby
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
50% · 278 games43% · 271 game
BeastmasterGunnar
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerVladikTheHtiviy
57% · 115 games42% · 284 games
PangolierMaTson
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroWein
53% · 348 games43% · 211 games
Windrangerxsvampire
Windranger
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
57% · 110 games46% · 127 games
SilencerDuBu
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 78%
Series resultWW Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3