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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 37 games
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
36%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
28%

Hydra

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 11 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 9 games
89%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
selfhate · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
mellojul · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 667 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
412 picks · 409 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
350 picks · 723 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
324 picks · 617 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 523 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
301 picks · 586 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:26
Zero Tenacity 60%Hydra 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNande
56% · 117 games46% · 204 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
61% · 100 games42% · 141 game
Queen of Painmellojul
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
56% · 45 games47% · 79 games
KunkkaActor
Kunkka
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPablo
53% · 55 games
Jakiro
JakiroLeBronDota
49% · 107 games
Game 2prediction missed34:44
Zero Tenacity 58%Hydra 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Hydra in 58:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNande
63% · 32 games47% · 217 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
52% · 238 games47% · 82 games
Slardarmellojul
Slardar
Puck
PuckStojkov
50% · 171 game51% · 180 games
Sand KingActor
Sand King
Rubick
RubickPablo
51% · 207 games48% · 270 games
Jakiro633
Jakiro
Silencer
SilencerLeBronDota
45% · 101 game
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 63%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2