Yakult Brothers vs ToLight Team — prediction AXECC · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO1

result vs prediction

Yakult Brotherswin 1:0

series probability

93%7%

probability at match start · final 1:0

TTToLight Teamloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk

天命 · 25 games

56%

Phoenixoften banned

天命 · 19 games

58%

Beastmasteroften banned

zeal · 17 games

59%

Magnussignature

zeal · 17 games

65%

Pucksignature

Emo · 17 games

65%

Tinyoften banned

Emo · 17 games

41%

Storm Spiritsignature

Emo · 16 games

69%

Batrider

BoBoKa · 15 games

40%

ToLight Team

Mirana

谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game

Shadow Shaman

bobo · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

446 picks · 670 bans

49%

Jakiro

407 picks · 405 bans

52%

Phantom Assassin

352 picks · 722 bans

53%

Bristleback

325 picks · 613 bans

54%

Dragon Knight

318 picks · 526 bans

50%

Muerta

313 picks · 187 bans

52%

Beastmaster

299 picks · 586 bans

51%

Warlock

296 picks · 272 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)44% vs 43%

Hero pool strength56% Yakult Brothers

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total93% Yakult Brothers

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct38:15

Yakult Brothers 80%ToLight Team 20%

The model gave 80% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:40.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo