?
arrow_backBack to match
ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentsloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

No games played over 6 months.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 32 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 23 games
39%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 23 games
48%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 18 games
72%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 669 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
405 picks · 402 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 719 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 609 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 525 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
312 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
298 picks · 582 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
294 picks · 272 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
Tearlaments 25%Xtreme Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 47:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusapoyoyo
43% · 119 games52% · 134 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEcho
49% · 360 games53% · 193 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSrf
53% · 136 games52% · 276 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Ringmaster
Ringmaster7e
48% · 138 games48% · 212 games
TerrorbladeXinQ
Terrorblade
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
51% · 170 games51% · 108 games
WarlockPoloson
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct14:29
Tearlaments 25%Xtreme Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 47:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
54% · 118 games50% · 98 games
Nature's ProphetAme
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckEcho
52% · 150 games49% · 343 games
Dragon KnightXm
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
49% · 187 games49% · 196 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Muerta
Muerta7e
50% · 219 games60% · 89 games
Naga SirenPoloson
Naga Siren
Alchemist
Alchemistzzq
45% · 140 games39% · 88 games
RingmasterXinQ
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct14:30
Tearlaments 25%Xtreme Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
52% · 152 games45% · 203 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingEcho
51% · 240 games52% · 240 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSrf
56% · 120 games56% · 208 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Jakiro
Jakirozzq
49% · 339 games43% · 173 games
WindrangerXinQ
Windranger
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter7e
42% · 74 games53% · 101 game
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 89%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3