European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Marsoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
Slardar
StoneBank · 1 game
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
Muerta
not me · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
445 picks · 673 bans
Jakiro
402 picks · 401 bans
Phantom Assassin
352 picks · 719 bans
Bristleback
324 picks · 611 bans
Dragon Knight
318 picks · 527 bans
Muerta
316 picks · 189 bans
Beastmaster
300 picks · 584 bans
Warlock
293 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
Team Lynx 36%One Move 64%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 50:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyDarkLord^
Phantom AssassinEyesight
BristlebackStoneBank
Tidehunterzvёzd
56% · 127 games
Sand KingDifference
49% · 160 games
HoodwinkGilgir
50% · 100 games
WarlockBb3px
Game 2prediction correct23:40
Team Lynx 36%One Move 64%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackDarkLord^
GyrocopterEyesight
TidehunterStoneBank
Dark Seerzvёzd
44% · 28 games
LeshracDifference
54% · 122 games
TuskGilgir
47% · 111 games
JakiroBb3px
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 75%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2