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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 37 games
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
36%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
28%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
Shishak · 6 games
17%
Sand King
Sand King
ряф^^ · 6 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 675 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
400 picks · 400 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
352 picks · 720 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 610 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 528 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
317 picks · 191 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
300 picks · 581 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
293 picks · 271 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 30%
Hero pool strength57% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total83% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:17
Zero Tenacity 70%Nemiga Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNande
57% · 31 game51% · 81 game
Phantom Assassinbashka
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
52% · 197 games51% · 15 games
Anti-MageCovisnine
Anti-Mage
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
52% · 112 games50% · 163 games
Sand Kingспортик
Sand King
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
46% · 101 game53% · 250 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Rubick
RubickPablo
46% · 150 games43% · 82 games
RingmasterFervian
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed44:37
Zero Tenacity 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
51% · 158 games48% · 276 games
Morphlingbashka
Morphling
Tiny
TinyStojkov
49% · 306 games51% · 252 games
Dark SeerCovisnine
Dark Seer
Sand King
Sand KingNefrit
52% · 175 games47% · 133 games
Slardarспортик
Slardar
Rubick
RubickPablo
52% · 129 games43% · 101 game
Silencermonodrama
Silencer
Ringmaster
RingmasterLeBronDota
56% · 109 games50% · 115 games
EarthshakerFervian
Earthshaker
Game 3prediction correct39:11
Zero Tenacity 73%Nemiga Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNande
53% · 63 games49% · 279 games
Tinybashka
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
57% · 180 games36% · 277 games
Pangolierспортик
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
56% · 349 games54% · 85 games
Dark SeerCovisnine
Dark Seer
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPablo
54% · 155 games44% · 53 games
Bounty HunterFervian
Bounty Hunter
Silencer
SilencerLeBronDota
47% · 120 games50% · 173 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 83%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3