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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 28 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
41%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kreker · 18 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 18 games
56%

Quantum Team

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
36%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 10 games
30%
Batrider
Batrider
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
13%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Leshrac
Leshrac
kolya_kaBAN68 · 7 games
43%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
takizawa · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fezor · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 674 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
400 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
354 picks · 720 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 611 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 531 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
317 picks · 191 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
300 picks · 580 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
293 picks · 271 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Passion UA 59%Quantum Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
52% · 267 games53% · 113 games
Phantom AssassinLukas
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingBatyuk
56% · 173 games52% · 313 games
Ember SpiritRvze
Ember Spirit
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
45% · 134 games48% · 118 games
Tidehunterkolya_kaBAN68
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightQBFY
53% · 99 games48% · 255 games
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
43% · 126 games
Game 2prediction correct39:22
Passion UA 58%Quantum Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
54% · 70 games60% · 34 games
Drow RangerLukas
Drow Ranger
Puck
Puckniche
53% · 131 game46% · 139 games
Primal Beastkolya_kaBAN68
Primal Beast
Doom
DoomBatyuk
46% · 161 game53% · 195 games
Sand KingRvze
Sand King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
49% · 121 game48% · 189 games
Windrangerlupsione
Windranger
Ringmaster
Ringmasterkreker
45% · 74 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 64%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2