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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 7 games
71%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Norma · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 7 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
flacko · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 7 games
86%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 37 games
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
36%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
28%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 672 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
401 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
352 picks · 723 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 612 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
321 picks · 533 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
320 picks · 191 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
299 picks · 579 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
293 picks · 271 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:33
Apple City Gang 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
47% · 199 games51% · 34 games
Anti-MageNande
Anti-Mage
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinyowaai
48% · 79 games50% · 222 games
Monkey KingStojkov
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingNorma
56% · 164 games54% · 151 game
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFernans
52% · 72 games51% · 73 games
TinkerLeBronDota
Tinker
Elder Titan
Elder Titanflacko
50% · 115 games41% · 149 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct24:44
Apple City Gang 47%Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
44% · 259 games46% · 106 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
Beastmasteryowaai
49% · 235 games50% · 238 games
Phantom AssassinNande
Phantom Assassin
Medusa
MedusaNorma
49% · 74 games48% · 158 games
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
Ringmaster
RingmasterFernans
52% · 76 games62% · 168 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Jakiro
Jakiroflacko
50% · 212 games51% · 186 games
WarlockLeBronDota
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 54%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2