?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
34%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 25 games
52%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 18 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 18 games
33%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 28 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
41%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
74%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kreker · 18 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 674 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
398 picks · 398 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
352 picks · 723 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
323 picks · 613 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
322 picks · 537 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
321 picks · 192 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
298 picks · 577 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
292 picks · 271 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total54% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:36
One Move 52%Passion UA 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by Passion UA in 51:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEyesight
50% · 305 games43% · 149 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Tiny
TinyDifference
50% · 356 games53% · 331 game
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand Kingzvёzd
53% · 187 games49% · 274 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionGilgir
56% · 89 games51% · 195 games
Crystal Maidenkreker
Crystal Maiden
Elder Titan
Elder TitanBb3px
53% · 131 game43% · 119 games
Bounty HunterQBFY
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct24:6
One Move 51%Passion UA 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 23:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeEyesight
53% · 246 games50% · 233 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Slark
Slarkzvёzd
55% · 94 games46% · 112 games
AbaddonCrystallize
Abaddon
Tiny
TinyDifference
53% · 487 games41% · 296 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGilgir
51% · 87 games51% · 111 games
WindrangerQBFY
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerBb3px
53% · 114 games48% · 276 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct32:33
One Move 52%Passion UA 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackEyesight
53% · 241 game52% · 328 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingDifference
52% · 185 games45% · 364 games
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
Ursa
Ursazvёzd
49% · 116 games54% · 103 games
LifestealerCrystallize
Lifestealer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGilgir
51% · 179 games47% · 109 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Jakiro
JakiroBb3px
52% · 265 games43% · 82 games
Bounty HunterQBFY
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 54%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3