PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tideboundloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
Doomsignature
33 · 43 games
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 31 game
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 31 game
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 29 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 29 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 26 games
Jakirosignature
y` · 23 games
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 16 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 14 games
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Muerta
y` · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
463 picks · 683 bans
Jakiro
395 picks · 394 bans
Phantom Assassin
364 picks · 735 bans
Muerta
332 picks · 199 bans
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 558 bans
Bristleback
328 picks · 632 bans
Beastmaster
303 picks · 579 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 397 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:5
Tundra Esports 55%Team Tidebound 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
Clinkzshiro
Beastmasterbzm
PuckNothingToSay
MarsMidOne
BristlebackFaith_bian
WarlockWhitemon
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
SlarkSaksa
Baney`
Game 2prediction missed34:30
Tundra Esports 57%Team Tidebound 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 54:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonCrystallis
KunkkaNothingToSay
Dark SeerMidOne
Ursashiro
Beastmasterbzm
BristlebackFaith_bian
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
GyrocopterpLAnet
Night StalkerSaksa
Jakiroy`
Game 3prediction correct38:7
Tundra Esports 56%Team Tidebound 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordCrystallis
Svenshiro
Dark SeerMidOne
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Ember Spiritbzm
Sand KingNothingToSay
TuskSaksa
Muertay`
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
GyrocopterpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3