?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 38 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 33 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 27 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
46%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 23 games
61%

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
74%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 27 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 26 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 26 games
73%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 25 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 683 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 391 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
366 picks · 738 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
332 picks · 204 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 565 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
330 picks · 637 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
306 picks · 582 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
301 picks · 397 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 9
Model total60% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:39
Team Liquid 43%PARIVISION 57%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
53% · 92 games51% · 94 games
KunkkaSatanic
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
41% · 203 games52% · 227 games
Sand KingNo[o]ne
Sand King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
54% · 163 games57% · 168 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Tinker
TinkeriNSaNiA
36% · 47 games47% · 55 games
Slark9Class
Slark
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
47% · 147 games58% · 108 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed41:18
Team Liquid 41%PARIVISION 59%
The model gave 59% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 51:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
48% · 148 games51% · 135 games
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Phantom Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
44% · 94 games53% · 28 games
Venomancer9Class
Venomancer
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
48% · 152 games53% · 214 games
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Monkey King
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
45% · 76 games50% · 141 game
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
57% · 185 games49% · 137 games
RingmasterDukalis
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct14:28
Team Liquid 42%PARIVISION 58%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 28:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
48% · 91 game50% · 274 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
41% · 286 games54% · 131 game
KunkkaNo[o]ne
Kunkka
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
47% · 115 games59% · 127 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Tinker
TinkeriNSaNiA
42% · 51 game61% · 70 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskBoxi
46% · 211 games52% · 152 games
Templar Assassin9Class
Templar Assassin
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 60%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3