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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 17 games
59%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 16 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 14 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
Nightfall · 13 games
69%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 45 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 43 games
84%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 32 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 30 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 29 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 686 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
392 picks · 391 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
367 picks · 737 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
333 picks · 205 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 568 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
331 picks · 634 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
305 picks · 583 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
300 picks · 398 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 68%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:39
Aurora Gaming 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 58:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
47% · 357 games46% · 279 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
59% · 52 games52% · 349 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 254 games47% · 250 games
Dark SeerMidOne
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 273 games59% · 134 games
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
Ancient Apparition
Windranger
WindrangerMira
44% · 138 games54% · 62 games
SlarkSaksa
Slark
Game 2prediction missed39:23
Aurora Gaming 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
47% · 393 games41% · 275 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkiyotaka
54% · 305 games50% · 355 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
61% · 168 games54% · 138 games
Nature's ProphetSaksa
Nature's Prophet
Riki
RikiMira
58% · 33 games43% · 165 games
UnderlordMidOne
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 267 games44% · 233 games
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct18:27
Aurora Gaming 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
40% · 181 game55% · 156 games
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
43% · 297 games50% · 430 games
Beastmasterbzm
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 156 games56% · 254 games
Dark SeerMidOne
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 256 games56% · 104 games
TinkerWhitemon
Tinker
Tusk
TuskMira
46% · 210 games53% · 156 games
Night StalkerSaksa
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3