PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Muertasignature
rue · 39 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 32 games
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
Tusk
rue · 28 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 27 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 25 games
Jakirosignature
y` · 23 games
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 16 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 13 games
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Muerta
y` · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
466 picks · 685 bans
Jakiro
391 picks · 390 bans
Phantom Assassin
367 picks · 736 bans
Muerta
332 picks · 205 bans
Bristleback
331 picks · 632 bans
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 568 bans
Beastmaster
304 picks · 582 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 398 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:36
Team Spirit 64%Team Tidebound 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyYatoro
Clinkzshiro
PangolierLarl
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
UnderlordCollapse
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Muertarue
WindrangerpLAnet
JakiroMiposhka
Ringmastery`
Game 2prediction missed8:33
Team Spirit 65%Team Tidebound 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYatoro
Gyrocoptershiro
Storm SpiritLarl
PangolierNothingToSay
Sand KingCollapse
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Windrangerrue
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
Ringmastery`
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2