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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 27 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 26 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 26 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 26 games
73%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 23 games
78%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 23 games
87%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 16 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 14 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 687 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
390 picks · 388 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
368 picks · 738 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
334 picks · 207 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 569 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
332 picks · 634 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
306 picks · 579 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 398 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:28
PARIVISION 66%Aurora Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
46% · 222 games44% · 192 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
49% · 212 games51% · 277 games
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
Bristleback
Tinker
Tinker9Class
51% · 76 games50% · 205 games
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingDM
56% · 165 games48% · 148 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
51% · 296 games55% · 149 games
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct25:18
PARIVISION 65%Aurora Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySatanic
47% · 345 games54% · 237 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingNo[o]ne
53% · 158 games51% · 346 games
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
46% · 187 games56% · 170 games
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Seer
Terrorblade
Terrorblade9Class
39% · 137 games48% · 76 games
TinkerPanto
Tinker
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
49% · 80 games57% · 78 games
RikiMira
Riki
Game 3prediction correct31:24
PARIVISION 67%Aurora Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 51:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
55% · 74 games51% · 213 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
55% · 211 games49% · 28 games
Rikikiyotaka
Riki
Sand King
Sand KingDM
54% · 179 games54% · 152 games
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Terrorblade
Terrorblade9Class
43% · 192 games45% · 125 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
50% · 59 games43% · 197 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 79%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3