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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 38 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 33 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
62%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 23 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 39 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 32 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 26 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 26 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 692 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
390 picks · 386 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
370 picks · 738 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 574 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
336 picks · 207 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
332 picks · 635 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
306 picks · 581 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
301 picks · 399 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total66% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:12
Team Liquid 41%Team Spirit 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 51:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
49% · 143 games46% · 100 games
AbaddonYatoro
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
52% · 190 games45% · 242 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
59% · 98 games39% · 100 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
53% · 124 games53% · 95 games
Keeper of the Lightrue
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
RingmasteriNSaNiA
59% · 47 games48% · 65 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed35:18
Team Liquid 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
49% · 347 games50% · 136 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
52% · 253 games46% · 199 games
TerrorbladeCollapse
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
52% · 88 games55% · 227 games
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
52% · 95 games50% · 138 games
RingmasterMiposhka
Ringmaster
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
51% · 154 games45% · 237 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2