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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 43 games
84%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 32 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 30 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 30 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 33 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 30 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 29 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 26 games
65%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 25 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 694 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
388 picks · 384 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
374 picks · 739 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
340 picks · 207 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 579 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
332 picks · 638 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
307 picks · 581 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
305 picks · 401 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:47
Tundra Esports 61%Natus Vincere Junior 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:00:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
48% · 137 games55% · 180 games
Doomgotthejuice
Doom
Morphling
Morphlingbzm
49% · 199 games57% · 170 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
45% · 292 games46% · 233 games
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMidOne
54% · 227 games49% · 130 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSaksa
46% · 120 games51% · 262 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct45:27
Tundra Esports 62%Natus Vincere Junior 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
50% · 53 games49% · 213 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
51% · 477 games46% · 300 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordMidOne
50% · 136 games59% · 189 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
52% · 332 games42% · 326 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskSaksa
51% · 405 games50% · 375 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2