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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 40 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 32 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 27 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 24 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Kataomi · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 22 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 20 games
60%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 15 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 13 games
31%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 696 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 384 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 743 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
343 picks · 208 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
338 picks · 643 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 592 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
310 picks · 584 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 406 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total72% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:32
BETBOOM TEAM 61%Aurora Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 58:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPure~
52% · 229 games40% · 105 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
60% · 170 games50% · 353 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
48% · 262 games53% · 241 game
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroKataomi
50% · 271 game46% · 155 games
RingmasterPanto
Ringmaster
Muerta
MuertaSave-
52% · 256 games50% · 334 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed12:24
BETBOOM TEAM 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkagpK~
44% · 107 games46% · 119 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPure~
48% · 169 games51% · 212 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMieRo
51% · 108 games52% · 169 games
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
Tidehunter
Muerta
MuertaSave-
56% · 258 games48% · 143 games
RingmasterPanto
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroKataomi
50% · 248 games54% · 247 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 72%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2