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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 27 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 26 games
73%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 23 games
78%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 23 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 22 games
68%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 697 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
385 picks · 383 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
379 picks · 747 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
349 picks · 206 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
341 picks · 644 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 596 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
312 picks · 583 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
309 picks · 407 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
PARIVISION 65%Team Tidebound 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
49% · 204 games48% · 221 game
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
50% · 370 games49% · 379 games
TinyNothingToSay
Tiny
Medusa
MedusaDM
45% · 153 games58% · 215 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
45% · 358 games54% · 111 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
Ringmaster9Class
51% · 121 game50% · 280 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct25:5
PARIVISION 65%Team Tidebound 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
42% · 186 games50% · 342 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
59% · 221 game52% · 290 games
BristlebackNothingToSay
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand KingDM
53% · 177 games44% · 78 games
UnderlordFaith_bian
Underlord
Batrider
Batrider9Class
46% · 299 games57% · 114 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
46% · 89 games48% · 148 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 76%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2