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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 13 games
31%
Doom
Doomsignature
Jabz · 13 games
69%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 28 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 26 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 20 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 17 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 700 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
380 picks · 382 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
380 picks · 750 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
354 picks · 209 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
344 picks · 648 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 609 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
315 picks · 584 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
313 picks · 414 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total69% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Aurora Gaming 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
45% · 60 games49% · 154 games
MedusaYuma
Medusa
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
46% · 364 games58% · 264 games
Sand KingWisper
Sand King
Bristleback
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 264 games51% · 138 games
Slardar4nalog
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
48% · 216 games55% · 159 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Tusk
TuskMira
48% · 313 games49% · 502 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct38:20
Aurora Gaming 65%Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
45% · 112 games44% · 187 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
57% · 315 games40% · 101 game
Sniper4nalog
Sniper
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
56% · 297 games37% · 75 games
KunkkaWisper
Kunkka
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
64% · 106 games48% · 335 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterMira
55% · 135 games49% · 267 games
TuskKJ
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 69%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2