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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 23 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 21 game
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 11 games
45%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 39 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 25 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 23 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 19 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
478 picks · 699 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
381 picks · 754 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
377 picks · 382 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
357 picks · 209 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
342 picks · 652 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 614 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
316 picks · 582 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
314 picks · 413 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total59% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:5
Team Tidebound 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
48% · 99 games51% · 157 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
46% · 276 games59% · 131 game
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingNothingToSay
48% · 177 games55% · 401 game
TinyXm
Tiny
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
41% · 138 games59% · 73 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
48% · 240 games48% · 168 games
Ringmaster天命
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed24:14
Team Tidebound 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 52:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
50% · 216 games50% · 230 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackFaith_bian
56% · 248 games52% · 336 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
45% · 310 games53% · 327 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
46% · 177 games44% · 268 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
55% · 355 games50% · 145 games
Ringmaster天命
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 59%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2