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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Edgeloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Edge

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Michael · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Vitaly · 2 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Yadomi · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 2 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
payk · 2 games
50%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 25 games
52%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
477 picks · 707 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 756 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
373 picks · 380 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
356 picks · 209 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
342 picks · 662 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 626 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 581 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 419 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:40
Edge 39%Heroic 61%
The model gave 61% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 53:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapayk
49% · 386 games50% · 338 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
48% · 360 games56% · 304 games
Monkey King4nalog
Monkey King
Bristleback
BristlebackVitaly
54% · 396 games49% · 412 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Elder Titan
Elder TitanYadomi
51% · 217 games49% · 335 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Tiny
TinyMichael
50% · 559 games45% · 529 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed31:2
Edge 36%Heroic 64%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Edge in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperPiPi
48% · 155 games54% · 53 games
LunaYuma
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterVitaly
44% · 74 games58% · 178 games
BristlebackWisper
Bristleback
Slardar
Slardarpayk
39% · 83 games55% · 152 games
Monkey King4nalog
Monkey King
Ringmaster
RingmasterYadomi
44% · 82 games57% · 163 games
MuertaScofield
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroMichael
48% · 200 games48% · 48 games
AbaddonKJ
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct20:30
Edge 37%Heroic 63%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetpayk
48% · 114 games47% · 219 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackVitaly
56% · 307 games44% · 264 games
Beastmaster4nalog
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarPiPi
50% · 111 games54% · 133 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Ringmaster
RingmasterYadomi
52% · 89 games51% · 287 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Muerta
MuertaMichael
48% · 370 games49% · 88 games
Ogre MagiKJ
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 74%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3