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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 22 games
82%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 20 games
70%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 11 games
55%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 38 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 35 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 32 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 27 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 25 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 706 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 754 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
371 picks · 379 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
353 picks · 209 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 626 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
340 picks · 658 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
315 picks · 577 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 419 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:33
Team Tidebound 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
47% · 149 games48% · 144 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
49% · 316 games54% · 296 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Wraith King
Wraith KingFaith_bian
47% · 32 games45% · 90 games
TinkeriNSaNiA
Tinker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
58% · 84 games49% · 175 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
49% · 274 games52% · 150 games
RingmasterBoxi
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct32:27
Team Tidebound 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
49% · 472 games49% · 430 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
48% · 124 games45% · 299 games
BeastmasterNisha
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
54% · 112 games61% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
44% · 267 games55% · 233 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Muerta
Muertay`
47% · 367 games48% · 215 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2