PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 27 games
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Tinysignature
OmaR · 21 game
Muerta
OmaR · 19 games
Tusk
OmaR · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 30 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 29 games
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 28 games
Lich
Riddys · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
Timbersawsignature
pma · 24 games
Lionsignature
Daze · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
473 picks · 706 bans
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 754 bans
Jakiro
371 picks · 379 bans
Muerta
353 picks · 209 bans
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 626 bans
Bristleback
340 picks · 658 bans
Beastmaster
315 picks · 577 bans
Pangolier
315 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:26
Nigma Galaxy 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
Terrorbladegotthejuice
SvenGhost
PuckNiku
Primal BeastNo!ob
Bristlebackpma
RingmasterOmaR
Elder TitanRiddys
PhoenixGH
LionZayac
Game 2prediction missed27:29
Nigma Galaxy 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 1:00:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNo!ob
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
UrsaGhost
PuckNiku
BeastmasterSumaiL
Dark Seerpma
RingmasterOmaR
PhoenixRiddys
TuskGH
ClockwerkZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2