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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 29 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 29 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 29 games
72%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 28 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
72%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 23 games
78%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 52 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 42 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 33 games
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 33 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 30 games
87%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 26 games
54%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 25 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 706 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
386 picks · 749 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
368 picks · 375 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
355 picks · 209 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 632 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
340 picks · 661 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
315 picks · 572 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 421 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total64% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:7
PARIVISION 56%Team Falcons 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 24:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
49% · 119 games52% · 201 game
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
46% · 193 games59% · 216 games
DoomATF
Doom
Medusa
MedusaDM
47% · 163 games51% · 173 games
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaDukalis
53% · 115 games48% · 174 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Terrorblade
Terrorblade9Class
38% · 243 games61% · 69 games
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct26:14
PARIVISION 59%Team Falcons 41%
The model gave 59% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
45% · 163 games49% · 195 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
54% · 163 games36% · 96 games
SnapfireMalr1ne
Snapfire
Medusa
MedusaDM
47% · 104 games56% · 80 games
TidehunterSkiter
Tidehunter
Slark
Slark9Class
49% · 65 games59% · 75 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
55% · 55 games53% · 104 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 64%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2