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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 32 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 25 games
40%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 39 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 22 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 703 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 750 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
366 picks · 372 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
354 picks · 210 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 634 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
337 picks · 659 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 420 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
313 picks · 570 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:31
Team Liquid 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
48% · 159 games56% · 278 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
41% · 112 games53% · 160 games
Sand KingXm
Sand King
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
43% · 176 games51% · 223 games
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
50% · 311 games48% · 61 game
RingmasterXinQ
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
48% · 66 games60% · 102 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct26:5
Team Liquid 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
53% · 335 games47% · 210 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
51% · 256 games47% · 403 games
Dragon KnightXm
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
51% · 316 games44% · 187 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
47% · 184 games59% · 93 games
Ancient ApparitionXinQ
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
RingmasteriNSaNiA
47% · 101 game54% · 299 games
Muerta天命
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct21:6
Team Liquid 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 21:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
48% · 297 games44% · 280 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
59% · 219 games51% · 347 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
59% · 177 games38% · 101 game
UnderlordXxs
Underlord
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
49% · 200 games48% · 89 games
RingmasterXinQ
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
47% · 48 games52% · 124 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3