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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Edgeloss 0:2
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Edge

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Michael · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 2 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
payk · 2 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Vitaly · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
100%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 42 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 32 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 29 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 25 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 25 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Kataomi · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 703 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 746 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
365 picks · 369 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
351 picks · 210 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 633 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
335 picks · 658 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 419 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
310 picks · 569 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:27
Edge 18%BETBOOM TEAM 82%
The model gave 82% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 22:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpayk
44% · 288 games53% · 125 games
Shadow FiendgpK~
Shadow Fiend
Brewmaster
BrewmasterVitaly
47% · 76 games49% · 46 games
ClinkzPure~
Clinkz
Slardar
SlardarPiPi
45% · 78 games50% · 89 games
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Snapfire
SnapfireYadomi
54% · 134 games58% · 158 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Slark
SlarkMichael
56% · 37 games46% · 195 games
TuskKataomi
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct20:34
Edge 20%BETBOOM TEAM 80%
The model gave 80% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetpayk
51% · 82 games44% · 98 games
SlardarPure~
Slardar
Timbersaw
TimbersawPiPi
49% · 152 games43% · 103 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingVitaly
55% · 141 game52% · 265 games
BristlebackMieRo
Bristleback
Elder Titan
Elder TitanYadomi
60% · 101 game50% · 203 games
LionSave-
Lion
Muerta
MuertaMichael
54% · 235 games40% · 42 games
IoKataomi
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 94%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2