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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 40 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 35 games
74%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 32 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 27 games
59%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 25 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 54 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 43 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 33 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 32 games
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 30 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 26 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 703 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 748 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
364 picks · 368 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
354 picks · 210 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 635 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
336 picks · 657 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
317 picks · 420 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
311 picks · 570 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 7
Model total52% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:26
Team Liquid 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
45% · 331 game45% · 214 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
54% · 100 games49% · 180 games
DoomATF
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
50% · 178 games55% · 184 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
47% · 75 games48% · 85 games
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Bounty Hunter
Ringmaster
RingmasterBoxi
52% · 95 games53% · 116 games
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed14:35
Team Liquid 52%Team Falcons 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
47% · 238 games51% · 119 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNisha
55% · 458 games54% · 194 games
DoomATF
Doom
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
44% · 67 games46% · 323 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
56% · 103 games47% · 102 games
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Ringmaster
RingmasteriNSaNiA
53% · 120 games48% · 248 games
JakiroCr1t-
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 52%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2