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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 39 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 17 games
59%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 29 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 27 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 21 game
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 707 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 750 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
362 picks · 366 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
353 picks · 213 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 638 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
336 picks · 660 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 424 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
314 picks · 479 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:16
Xtreme Gaming 64%Talon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
51% · 178 games49% · 110 games
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyXm
47% · 285 games52% · 126 games
SlardarMikoto
Slardar
Magnus
MagnusXxs
54% · 132 games54% · 170 games
TidehunterWs
Tidehunter
Ringmaster
RingmasterXinQ
49% · 113 games44% · 108 games
Bounty HunterJhocam
Bounty Hunter
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
53% · 113 games48% · 307 games
JakiroKuku
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct24:7
Xtreme Gaming 66%Talon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
48% · 184 games46% · 294 games
TinyNatsumi
Tiny
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
53% · 323 games53% · 161 game
PuckMikoto
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingXm
57% · 247 games42% · 85 games
MarciWs
Marci
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightXinQ
59% · 131 game48% · 223 games
MuertaJhocam
Muerta
Ringmaster
Ringmaster天命
45% · 122 games46% · 244 games
JakiroKuku
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 75%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2