?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Edgeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 29 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 29 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 28 games
61%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 28 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 24 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 23 games
78%

Edge

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 2 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
payk · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Vitaly · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Yadomi · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 1 game
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 701 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 750 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
357 picks · 363 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
355 picks · 210 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 641 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
335 picks · 664 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 421 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 484 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:24
PARIVISION 84%Edge 16%
The model gave 84% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
52% · 103 games48% · 189 games
Monkey Kingpayk
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
47% · 258 games46% · 133 games
KunkkaVitaly
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingDM
55% · 155 games43% · 209 games
Ember SpiritPiPi
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
58% · 90 games51% · 82 games
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
54% · 77 games48% · 70 games
Bounty HunterMichael
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct39:16
PARIVISION 83%Edge 17%
The model gave 83% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 38:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSatanic
50% · 168 games59% · 129 games
Nature's ProphetPiPi
Nature's Prophet
Venomancer
Venomancer9Class
51% · 25 games56% · 233 games
Sand KingVitaly
Sand King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
45% · 236 games49% · 203 games
Terrorbladepayk
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
45% · 106 games47% · 112 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
48% · 224 games53% · 82 games
Bounty HunterMichael
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 96%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2