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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 40 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 35 games
74%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 26 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
38%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 27 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 22 games
77%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 21 game
62%
Muerta
Muerta
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
480 picks · 708 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 750 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
358 picks · 214 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
355 picks · 359 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 657 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
340 picks · 671 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 428 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
319 picks · 497 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total75% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Team Liquid 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 54:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
52% · 398 games43% · 215 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
50% · 192 games41% · 183 games
TerrorbladeNo!ob
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
53% · 143 games50% · 202 games
Dark SeerSumaiL
Dark Seer
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
59% · 187 games51% · 260 games
JakiroOmaR
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterBoxi
54% · 132 games48% · 192 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct37:44
Team Liquid 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
55% · 186 games46% · 163 games
MarciGhost
Marci
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
50% · 172 games52% · 294 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
54% · 112 games55% · 142 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
48% · 177 games41% · 70 games
IoGH
Io
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
51% · 130 games46% · 108 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 75%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2