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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 38 games
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 30 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 28 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 25 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 24 games
79%

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
479 picks · 707 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 749 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
356 picks · 214 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
354 picks · 358 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 656 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
339 picks · 670 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 428 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
319 picks · 497 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Team Spirit 76%Shopify Rebellion 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
54% · 88 games42% · 30 games
Wraith KingTimado
Wraith King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
49% · 151 game43% · 323 games
BeastmasterPakazs
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyLarl
60% · 255 games41% · 89 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Muerta
Muertarue
55% · 150 games43% · 57 games
TinkerHellscream
Tinker
Bane
BaneMiposhka
59% · 30 games53% · 175 games
WindrangerSkem
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct20:15
Team Spirit 75%Shopify Rebellion 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYatoro
52% · 95 games50% · 388 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
54% · 246 games51% · 253 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
53% · 243 games47% · 224 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Muerta
Muertarue
50% · 265 games49% · 108 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
47% · 294 games47% · 170 games
WarlockSkem
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2