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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 43 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 32 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 27 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 27 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
54%
Magnus
Magnussignature
MieRo · 23 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kataomi · 22 games
59%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
68%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 20 games
85%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 707 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
386 picks · 750 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
357 picks · 217 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
352 picks · 357 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
341 picks · 675 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 666 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 431 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
319 picks · 503 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:23
BETBOOM TEAM 61%Team Tidebound 39%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
46% · 217 games51% · 203 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Tinker
TinkerKataomi
52% · 66 games42% · 221 game
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaMieRo
43% · 145 games53% · 147 games
BristlebackFaith_bian
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardargpK~
53% · 139 games51% · 231 game
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
54% · 433 games54% · 198 games
Tusky`
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct23:18
BETBOOM TEAM 58%Team Tidebound 42%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPure~
52% · 115 games51% · 224 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Doom
DoomMieRo
46% · 186 games51% · 186 games
Sand KingNothingToSay
Sand King
Monkey King
Monkey KinggpK~
49% · 236 games52% · 153 games
MagnusFaith_bian
Magnus
Tinker
TinkerKataomi
47% · 56 games52% · 74 games
RingmasterpLAnet
Ringmaster
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
50% · 156 games50% · 112 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed20:20
BETBOOM TEAM 63%Team Tidebound 37%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPure~
54% · 137 games49% · 157 games
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Huskar
HuskargpK~
53% · 46 games49% · 210 games
BristlebackNothingToSay
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyMieRo
49% · 324 games53% · 73 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorSave-
47% · 58 games55% · 87 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockKataomi
51% · 85 games43% · 123 games
Windrangery`
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 71%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3