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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Q · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
25%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lich
Lich
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 26 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 23 games
74%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 709 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 748 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
359 picks · 217 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 355 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 672 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
338 picks · 677 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 431 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
318 picks · 507 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
Aurora Gaming 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
40% · 96 games47% · 173 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
53% · 61 game50% · 111 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 213 games37% · 51 game
SniperNiku
Sniper
Ringmaster
RingmasterMira
52% · 51 game58% · 136 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanto
58% · 74 games45% · 24 games
SlarkZayac
Slark
Game 2prediction missed16:36
Aurora Gaming 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNightfall
57% · 97 games43% · 256 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
Kunkkakiyotaka
43% · 109 games50% · 335 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Bristleback
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 219 games35% · 80 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
51% · 262 games57% · 79 games
Keeper of the LightZayac
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionMira
53% · 186 games54% · 123 games
Elder TitanRiddys
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct35:12
Aurora Gaming 53%Natus Vincere Junior 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkiyotaka
51% · 431 game56% · 230 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
49% · 226 games48% · 258 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 138 games47% · 199 games
Terrorbladepma
Terrorblade
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
44% · 279 games48% · 151 game
WindrangerZayac
Windranger
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
49% · 111 games54% · 347 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3