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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Edgewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 39 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 20 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 17 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
82%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%

Edge

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 709 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 748 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
359 picks · 217 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 355 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 672 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
338 picks · 677 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 431 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
318 picks · 507 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:34
Xtreme Gaming 84%Edge 16%
The model gave 84% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Edge in 57:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
48% · 36 games47% · 182 games
Phantom Assassinpayk
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyXm
51% · 420 games45% · 406 games
PangolierPiPi
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
49% · 69 games44% · 63 games
TinkerMichael
Tinker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
53% · 179 games53% · 236 games
BristlebackVitaly
Bristleback
Jakiro
Jakiro天命
54% · 273 games53% · 90 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct11:24
Xtreme Gaming 85%Edge 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
49% · 153 games45% · 125 games
Phantom Assassinpayk
Phantom Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
49% · 138 games48% · 106 games
BrewmasterVitaly
Brewmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaXm
54% · 93 games49% · 98 games
SlardarPiPi
Slardar
Tinker
TinkerXinQ
63% · 51 game42% · 61 game
SilencerYadomi
Silencer
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
57% · 96 games47% · 141 game
WindrangerMichael
Windranger
Game 3prediction missed11:26
Xtreme Gaming 86%Edge 14%
The model gave 86% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Edge in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeXxs
45% · 300 games53% · 183 games
Morphlingpayk
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
59% · 58 games47% · 238 games
BeastmasterVitaly
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaXm
53% · 102 games45% · 273 games
PangolierPiPi
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
49% · 213 games49% · 192 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Jakiro
Jakiro天命
52% · 325 games53% · 112 games
Elder TitanYadomi
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 97%
Series resultEdge 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3