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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 45 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 42 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 28 games
68%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 24 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
74%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 782 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 818 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
410 picks · 269 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 822 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
388 picks · 594 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 848 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 483 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
359 picks · 301 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Tundra Esports 55%PARIVISION 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
44% · 174 games43% · 134 games
MedusaSatanic
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
48% · 101 game52% · 300 games
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand King33
61% · 190 games52% · 97 games
KunkkaDM
Kunkka
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
46% · 112 games51% · 61 game
Tinker9Class
Tinker
Tusk
TuskSaksa
57% · 250 games47% · 235 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed7:23
Tundra Esports 58%PARIVISION 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallis
54% · 269 games46% · 392 games
BeastmasterSatanic
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
58% · 280 games39% · 489 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
60% · 180 games46% · 140 games
MedusaDM
Medusa
Tinker
TinkerWhitemon
51% · 71 game42% · 105 games
Bounty Hunter9Class
Bounty Hunter
Tiny
TinySaksa
53% · 427 games51% · 101 game
RingmasterDukalis
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed23:35
Tundra Esports 58%PARIVISION 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:16:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
52% · 197 games54% · 112 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
53% · 67 games50% · 198 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
54% · 153 games45% · 136 games
BrewmasterDM
Brewmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
60% · 90 games29% · 122 games
Terrorblade9Class
Terrorblade
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
53% · 124 games51% · 63 games
RingmasterDukalis
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3